Drivers of Wildfire
Understanding the links between wildfire, land use, and restoration in Europe’s changing landscapes.
The frequency and severity of landscape fires are increasing across Europe, driven by climate change, land-use patterns, and altered fire regimes. While fire plays a natural role in many ecosystems, changes in moisture availability and fuel load in degraded landscapes have created conditions for large, damaging fires with serious impacts on biodiversity, carbon storage, and human health.
This project, led by the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), used satellite data to explore the patterns and drivers of wildfire and the potential role of restoration in reducing risk. The study focused primarily on Polesia, one of Europe’s most intact wetland regions, and also investigated patterns in the Greater Côa Valley.
What the project did
This study used nearly two decades of satellite data to understand how fire behaves in two restoration landscapes: Polesia in Eastern Europe and the Greater Côa Valley in Portugal.
In Polesia, the team mapped large fires and examined how land cover, moisture, and human activity contributed to fire risk. In the Côa Valley, they explored how fire patterns relate to drought, vegetation, and grazing regimes.
The research produced the first fire risk map of Polesia, alongside a replicable method for analysing fire patterns using open-access satellite data. Findings were published in peer-reviewed journals and shared through a summary report and publicly available code.
Key findings
of protected Polesian peatlands were affected by fire from 2001 to 2019.
Peatlands, meadows and deciduous forests were up to ten times more likely to burn during dry conditions.
Over 20 percent of protected land in Polesia burned between 2001 and 2019, including five fires over 100 square kilometres. The largest affected areas of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, raising health and environmental concerns.
Peatlands, meadows and deciduous forests were up to ten times more likely to burn during dry conditions. High moisture levels significantly reduced fire occurrence, underscoring the importance of intact hydrology.
Many fires began in agricultural areas and spread into protected peatlands and forests, threatening species like the greater spotted eagle and aquatic warbler.
Fires in native deciduous forests, including old-growth oak and beech, can cause lasting damage due to low fire tolerance and limited regeneration potential.
In the Greater Côa Valley, drought, land cover and grazing intensity all influenced fire occurrence. Natural grazing may help reduce fire risk by lowering fuel loads.
Outputs
Landscape fires in Polesia: Patterns, drivers, solutions
A visual summary of the study’s key insights. Highlights the links between ecosystem condition and fire risk, using Polesia as a case study.
Landscape fires in Polesia: patterns, drivers, solutions
Peer-reviewed article – Polesia
Landscape fires disproportionally affect protected peatlands, meadows and forests under low moisture conditions.
Published in Science of the Total Environment, this article presents the first landscape-scale fire analysis for Polesia, identifying drivers and implications for ecosystem management and restoration.
Landscape fires disproportionally affect protected peatlands, meadows and forests under low moisture conditions
Open-access methodology and code
Includes scripts and guidance for extracting and processing satellite fire data using Google Earth Engine and related tools.
Methodology and code for analysing patterns and drivers of landscape fires
Peer-reviewed article – Greater Côa Valley
Protected areas, drought, and grazing regimes influence fire occurrence in a fire-prone Mediterranean region.
Published in Fire Ecology, this paper uses MODIS satellite data to analyse how fire risk in the Greater Côa Valley is shaped by land use and environmental factors.
Protected areas, drought, and grazing regimes influence fire occurrence in a fire‑prone Mediterranean region
Implications for restoration
The findings support the role of restoration in reducing wildfire risk and building ecological resilience. In Polesia and beyond, protecting and rewetting peatlands can help reduce the risk of large fires and support biodiversity, carbon storage, and climate adaptation goals. The study also demonstrates the value of remote sensing for informing planning and understanding outcomes of restoration at landscape scale.
Digging deeper into soil biodiversity in Portugal and Scotland
Fighting Fire with Nature: How Europe’s Restoration Projects are Tackling Wildfires
Landscape Fires and Drivers in a Restoration Context
